{"id":101,"date":"2023-03-27T12:21:58","date_gmt":"2023-03-27T16:21:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lassonde.yorku.ca\/theblockchainhub\/?p=101"},"modified":"2023-03-27T12:30:33","modified_gmt":"2023-03-27T16:30:33","slug":"on-blockchain-adoption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lassonde.yorku.ca\/theblockchainhub\/2023\/03\/27\/on-blockchain-adoption\/","title":{"rendered":"On Blockchain Adoption"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This blog post was written by Carlos Dominguez CBPro<\/a>, CMDes<\/a>. Carlos is a professional in Enterprise Architecture and Information Security. He is also alumni and volunteer with The Blockchain Hub. To learn more about our program offerings, please check www.theblockchainhub.com\/academy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Blockchain Adoption<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

At the recent Fields Institute Blockchain Event (September 2018), one of the stand-out presentations covered leading academic research on Blockchain Technology adoption, presented by Associated Professor Theophanis C. Stratopoulos of Waterloo University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reviewing the papers, one of the fascinating topics was the framework for measuring adoption (see the links included at the bottom of this post), which are based on the Diffusion of Innovation work done by Everett Rogers . The papers draw from the must-read book for entrepreneurs: \u201cCrossing the Chasm\u201d by Geoffrey A. Moore, which also refers to the work of Everett Rogers. Below is a summary of the works to peak your interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please note, this article will refer to Blockchain with an upper case, which is simply preference of the author but is not intended to spark the \u201cBlockchain\u201d vs \u201cblockchain\u201d debate \u2014 let\u2019s save that for a future post!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Innovation Diffusion<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Diffusion of Innovation seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technologies spread. It makes use of a chart to depict the adoption, which looks like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Based on Rogers, E. (1962) Diffusion of innovations. Free Press, London, NY, USA. Wikimedia Commons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The adoption lifecycle includes different types of adopters, which could extend from individuals to countries. For more details please read the Wikipedia entry included at the end. Geoffrey Moore added a gap in the adoption lifecycle (see next figure), between the early adopters of the product (the technology enthusiasts and visionaries) and the early majority (the pragmatists).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Technology (or solution) adoption process, as described in Geoffrey Moore\u2019s book Crossing the Chasm. Wikimedia Commons.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This gap is ominously called \u201cThe Chasm\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about Blockchain?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Well\u2026 that is the key question of the presentation and work of Professor Theophanis C. Stratopoulos: where is Blockchain adoption right now? Or to put in another way: is it before or after \u201cThe Chasm\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Very good question! So where is Blockchain?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out this is not easy to answer. The papers draw from several sources such as Google Trends (analytics on what people search), and from statistics on publications. The results seem to indicate (at least to me) that Blockchain adoption is somewhere around \u201cThe Chasm\u201d. In the vicinity of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is an example of what Google Trends have to say on search results, going by what I believe people search when looking for Blockchain:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Google Trends. 5 years of searches. Roughly.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, what do people care about (according to that chart above)? \u2026Bitcoin! Do mind the chart needs to be read in particular way: 100 represents the top result and everything else is scaled after it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That chart is not surprising, or should not be surprising at all. Somehow that chart looks familiar, and I think this is the one that is triggering my memory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Bitcoin Price over 5 years. CoinMarketCap<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cspike\u201d in both charts is centered around December 2017 when Bitcoin hit top dollar ($19k). Funny enough, it seems Ripple did too (or I am reading too much into this? Let me know your thoughts!). So, Google Trends and CoinMarketCap align (roughly).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trying to get to the point<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

One point is that Google Trends don\u2019t seem to mean anything, besides rampant speculation on Bitcoin (and Ripple). I don\u2019t think Google Trends show anything chasm related.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is that? Well, I have some theories:<\/p>\n\n\n\n